Global Lubricant Additive Consumption to Reach 4.5 Million Tons by 2017

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Global Lubricant Additive Consumption to Reach 4.5 Million Tons by 2017

While global consumption of finished lubricants is estimated to grow annually at 1.7 percent, global lubricant additive consumption is projected to grow at 2.2% per year from 4 million metric tons in 2012 to 4.5 million tons by 2017.

By lubricant categoriy, additive consumption in 2012 of heavy-duty motor oil accounted for 33 percent of global demand and passenger car motor oil accounted for 27 percent. Additives used in other automotive oils accounted for 7 percent, additives in metalworking fluids accounted for 14 percent, industrial engine oils accounted for 13 percent, and general industrial oils accounted for 4 percent. Other types accounted for the remaining 2 percent..

Dispersants, VII, and detergents are the top three function classes accounting for 70% of total consumption in 2012, with dispersants accounting for 25 percent, viscosity index improvers, 24 percent, and detergents with 21 percent. They were followed by antiwear agents at 7 percent; antioxidants, 5 percent; corrosion inhibitors and friction modifiers, each 4 percent; and emulsifiers at 3 percent. Other types accounted for the remainder.

PCMO and HDMO additives account for 60 percent of global additive demand due to more additization in HDMO and PCMO products, as compared to industrial products.

Shift from monogrades to higher-performance oils and multigrades will lead to an increase in the consumption of additives such as dispersants, antioxidants, and viscosity modifiers.

In reference to extended drain intervals, to make engine oils more durable, an up-treat of antioxidants and dispersants will be required.

The trends affecting the formulation of PCMO and demand for additives in this product category include the introduction of new specifications such as ILSAC’s GF-5 and GF-6 which should increase the consumption of additives such as antioxidants and friction modifiers.

Trend towards lower viscosity PCMO grades will increase the use of friction modifiers and that the extension of drain intervals for PCMO will result in an increase in dispersant and antioxidant treat rates. Also, with usage of flexible fuel vehicles that use ethanol, an increase is expected for rust and corrosion inhibitors, as well as increase in emulsion retention.

Regarding metalworking fluids, the trend towards greater use of paraffinic basestock, especially Group II and Group III, is likely to result in some changes in additive use.

With hydraulic fluids, there is a trend towards low-zinc and ashless fluids. Share of Zinc-free hydraulic fluids is expected to grow in the next 5 years, up from 7% of the total market in 2012 to 12% of the market in 2017. Rising demand for fire-resistant fluids is driving the usage of corrosion inhibitors, VIIs, and emulsifiers for ester based fluids.



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